India-US Relations in a Multipolar World

A Tale of Two Democracies

The largest democracy in the world, India and the oldest democracy in the world, the United States, share a dynamic and multifaceted relationship that has evolved significantly over the decades. From Cold War estrangement to strategic partners, their bilateral ties now encompass a broad spectrum of cooperation in defence, trade, technology, and socio-cultural exchange. This partnership, grounded in mutual democratic values and converging geopolitical interests, is crucial for addressing global challenges such as climate change, economic stability, and regional security. As both nations navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing world, their collaboration is pivotal for their growth and security and for fostering stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region in particular and on a global scale. 

Both India and the US are in election mode and the outcome seems more predictable in India, while it remains more uncertain in America. The election campaign in the United States is overshadowed by the criminal charges against the prospective Republican candidate, Donald J. Trump. Although the India-US bilateral relationship has become largely immune to political changes on both sides, the more nuanced impact of the upcoming elections cannot be discounted either. While there are general characteristics common to democracies, such as free and fair elections and peaceful transfer of power, the disruption of this process in the US after the 2020 elections, when hardline Trump supporters violently stormed the US Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 does raise questions about the health of American democracy.

The journey of democracy and their approaches to democracy promotion have been distinct in both the countries. America's approach to promoting democracy has been interventionist, including use of force on foreign soil, regime changes and sanctions and in most cases, it is America’s geopolitical interest more than democratic values that determine such actions. In contrast, India focuses on strengthening democratic processes and institutions. India's democracy promotion is more consultative and demand-driven, assisting other countries through capacity building including training of parliamentarians and sharing best practices for managing democratic elections. India's example as a functioning democracy, despite its challenges, serves as a model for many countries in the Global South, promoting democratic practices in a participatory and inclusive manner.

The challenges faced by both democracies are unique to their respective political, social, and economic contexts, reflecting the distinct paths they have taken in their democratic journeys. In the US, issues like law enforcement and racial inequality, abortion rights, immigration tangles, gun violence and deepening political polarisation are significant challenges to America’s democratic landscape. The abortion rights issue, in particular, has profound implications for women's rights and civil rights, and  has become one of the most critical US election issues in 2024. The forthcoming presidential election will be pivotal in determining how the US addresses these challenges in its democratic path. 

Building an Economic Partnership for the 21st Century 

Given the significance of India and the United States—one being the world's largest economy and the other one of the fastest-growing economies—the economic partnership between India and the US  is evolving in many ways, beyond traditional notions of trade in goods and services. Often, the defence and security partnership, especially in light of China’s aggressive rise in the Indo-Pacific, tends to dominate the narrative. As a result, the economic potential of this relationship occupies less bandwidth in reportage. While significant potential remains untapped, it is important to note that trade figures have increased from a relatively low base. Comparatively, the US-China trade relationship is far more extensive, even amidst their strategic rivalry. The US-India economic relationship, while still developing, has a long way to go to match the density of the US-China trade turnover. 

The economic relationship between countries is evolving, and it is no longer just about bilateral trade dynamics. For instance, the absence of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the US and India often draws criticism. However, it is time, perhaps, to move beyond FTAs as the FTA syndrome is becoming outdated. India and the US are collaborating through multilateral formats, such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Although India is not yet part of the trade pillar of IPEF, it is negotiating closely with the US on various issues, including a clean and fair economy, corruption eradication, and, most importantly, building resilient supply chains. The pandemic highlighted the critical need for diversified supply chains, unaffected by political convulsions or natural crises. This collaboration is essential, especially considering the US had previously stepped back from the economic framework in the Indo-Pacific after withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).  IPEF is viewed as America's answer to China's economic dominance in the region, providing an alternative structure.

At the core of this economic partnership is a multifaceted approach that includes green economy initiatives. Economic partnerships now must consider green energy and sustainable infrastructure. It is not enough to just build or finance infrastructure; it must be environmentally friendly, minimising carbon footprints and also the financing has to be transparent, unlike projects with opaque financing as witnessed in China’s infamous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This partnership also entails robust technology collaboration because a comprehensive economic partnership cannot exist without a solid technological component, including semiconductors, critical for new-age technologies driving economic growth. Creating resilient semiconductor supply chains involves not just production but also a skilled workforce and access to critical minerals.

Beyond trade turnovers, the US-India economic relationship is becoming increasingly dense, involving both bilateral and multilateral efforts. The Quad Partnership, for instance, is not merely security-oriented but also focuses on resilient economic collaboration. While the numbers might suggest slow progress, it is crucial to recognise that the world is on the brink of an economic revolution that requires new governance and structural changes. The US and India are thoughtfully addressing these challenges and opportunities, with a clear vision and intent. It has to be seen how these efforts translate into tangible outcomes.

India-US Strategic Partnership: The Real Deal in the Indo-Pacific

However, the real drive of Quad partnership remains building a concerted and comprehensive deterrence against China's aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific. China's actions in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the South China Sea and along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India, have raised significant concerns about regional stability. This issue lies at the core of the Indo-Pacific's geopolitical landscape, which China prefers to term as Asia-Pacific. The strategic challenges posed by China's unilateral actions, threatening the rules-based order in the region, has given new impetus to the US-India strategic partnership. Two decades ago, the comprehensiveness of their current relationship would have been hard to imagine. The shared perception of China as a strategic threat has facilitated extensive cooperation, particularly in defence and security, fostering relative trust and confidence-building measures between the two nations, resulting in "habits of cooperation." The US designates India as a major defence partner, leading to a significant increase in the volume and complexity of defence equipment India acquires from the US. The vision is to scale up from a buyer-seller relationship to one that includes co-development and co-production of defence equipment. Just a cursory examination of the types and volume of defence sales and purchase between the two countries, indicate the serious intent on both sides. Joint military exercises like the tri-service Tiger Triumph and the Malabar exercises, which include other Quad members, enhance military interoperability. These exercises, involving land, air, and sea assets, are among the most extensive India conducts with any country, reflecting the strategic focus on countering China.

India's strategic focus in the Indo-Pacific differs slightly from that of the US. India is primarily concerned with Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean region and along its Himalayan borders, where confrontations frequently occur. In contrast, the US focus is more on the maritime belly of Southeast Asia and East Asia, particularly the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Straits. Despite these differences, there is a broad convergence between India and the US on the China threat. For instance, it is extremely crucial for India to augment its anti-submarine warfare capabilities in the Indian Ocean, and in this pursuit, the US along with other like-minded partners can play an extremely important collaborative role. 

Quite clearly, creating deterrence is a key objective for India and its partners. Integrated deterrence, as advocated by the US, aims to counter China’s assertiveness effectively. However, managing expectations remains a challenge. American commentators may often question India's willingness to fully align with the US against China, given India's emphasis on strategic autonomy. Conversely, Indian commentators may sometimes doubt the extent of US support in the event of a direct India-China conflict. The Russia factor adds another layer of complexity. India's response to the Ukraine war and its longstanding defence relationship with Russia contrasts with the positions taken by the US in particular and the West in general. This balancing act becomes more challenging as evolving geopolitics pushes Russia and China into a strategic embrace. While there is a broad convergence between India and the US regarding China as a strategic threat, managing the expectations and balancing relationships with other powers like Russia will test the diplomatic toolkit of Indian foreign policy. 

The Consequential Partnership

The US-India partnership is at a critical juncture, and the emerging contours of its strategic partnership is treading new grounds of defence, trade, technology, and sustainable development. Amidst global challenges and regional threats, especially from China, this partnership exemplifies how two of the world's largest democracies can work together to promote stability, security, and prosperity. By leveraging their strengths and addressing mutual concerns through a blend of bilateral and multilateral efforts, the US and India are reinforcing their ties and setting a precedent for global cooperation. The success of this partnership will depend on its ability to manage complex geopolitical landscapes, balance relationships with other global powers, and continue to innovate and collaborate across various domains. In doing so, the US and India can drive meaningful progress on global issues, ensuring a more secure and sustainable future for all.

Both these nations share a responsibility that extends beyond their bilateral cooperation. They have the potential to significantly aid other countries, particularly in the Global South, by sharing technology and providing financial assistance to help these nations transition to green energy. Doing so will enhance their partnership and contribute to the greater good by fostering a more sustainable and equitable world.